Food security conditions are expected to vary due to forecast above-average short rains. Refugee settlements are likely to experience persistent Crisis outcomes, with humanitarian assistance preventing more severe situations. Limited income and food production opportunities are key drivers of food insecurity in these areas.

Emergency outcomes are anticipated to emerge in some areas between October and January. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding, limiting access and increasing the spread of diseases, which would worsen food security conditions. Further details on the forecast and expected outcomes are available, including information on specific areas and the factors contributing to food insecurity.