Strong El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to bring increased rainfall to parts of eastern Africa. This may lead to flooding in countries such as Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. Similar conditions in the past have resulted in severe flooding, causing significant impacts on communities.

Flooding can contaminate drinking water and disrupt access to essential services. Recent flooding in Kenya, during the March-May 2026 long rains, affected 27 counties and claimed 122 lives. Further details on the potential flooding and its effects are available from ReliefWeb.