Cereal production was estimated at an average level in 2025. However, production prospects for the 2026 paddy crop are uncertain due to weather conditions. Planting started on time in mid-May with above-average precipitation, but dry weather in June slowed progress and affected crop emergence.

Adequate rainfall in the coming months is critical to support crop development. Seasonal forecasts indicate a high likelihood of below-average precipitation, which may impact the crop. Cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year are forecast at an above-average level.

Further details on the situation are available from the GIEWS Country Brief, which provides an update on food security. The brief notes that weather conditions until the October/December harvest will be crucial in determining the outcome of the 2026 paddy crop.